How Colombia sees US and China Foreign Policy shifts

Thanks to the Inter-American Dialogue I recently exchanged in Washington some personal views on how China and the United States are currently engaging with Colombia. I would like to share some lines of one of the issues I discussed regarding the effect of foreign policy changes of the United States and China on the engagement with Colombia, among the many interesting topics that were addressed.

United States has made a strategic pivotal turn to the Asia Pacific realm, a region driving global politics and propelling the engine of the world economy, particularly led by key Asia Pacific countries such as China.  Such move puts Latin America in the shadow.

China is now running a political and economical multi-polarized engagement with the world, which includes Latin America as a region. Such shift puts Latin America in the spotlight.

In the decade ahead, it is not only the United States directing its focus to the Asia Pacific. Latin American countries, with or without a coast in the Pacific Rim – like the BRICS-inspired Mercosur members-, are doing the same; and in that focus China is for natural reasons a priority.

Now, the question is whether Latin America will or will not engage the Asia Pacific region in tandem with the United States.

Many facts are leading to believe it seems the United States and Latin America will consolidate such policy shift towards the Asia Pacific in a separate manner, consolidating the growing perception that the United States is phasing out and shadowing its integration with Latin America.

The situation is simple to understand. ALBA countries are predominantly engaging with the Asia Pacific in an individual fashion. Why? Because there is simply no ideological space for the United States in their foreign policy initiatives and less in working together a strategy to deal with China.

Non-ALBA countries or U.S. likeminded countries from Latin America that will comfortably work together with the United States in the Asia Pacific drive have also engaged with Asia Pacific countries, including China, in an individual fashion. Mexico is probably the exception when one argues that it is working together with the United States to join the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), but still is dealing with China in an autonomous approach with respect to Canada and the United States.

Colombia, an old time ally of the United States, has two strong reasons to believe that the United States is not involving Pacific Rim Latin American countries into its Asia Pacific policy drive.

One reason is APEC. After many years of formal petitions of entry support, it is a fact that the United States is not willing to internally champion the opening of APEC new membership discussions to rapidly bring Colombia into the regional club, a reiterated request that has officially been presented to the United States since 1995.

The gathering of the United States with APEC leaders in Vladivostok, Russia on 8-9 September 2012 ratified Colombia´s perception that the United States prefers APEC´s consolidation of current membership to integrate and grow, rather than bringing new partners like Colombia to expand APEC´s integration and further prosper.  

APEC formal membership has been a Colombian national goal since 1995 and the United States has been notified of that many times. China has recently acknowledged and supported the Colombian request and will probably openly favor it when the People’s Republic of China will host APEC in 2014.

In contrast, Colombia´s goal to seek membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a new and very important effort initiated in the Santos Government, has been openly supported by Obama, who has stated that  “when Colombia is ready to seek membership to OECD the United States will strongly support Colombia's candidacy for the OECD”. Moreover, Obama recently said in his visit to Colombia early this year that the United States “will actively encourage other members of the OECD to join us in supporting Colombia's membership, which would be another symbol of Colombia's transformation”.

Why doesn´t the United States voice and support Colombia the same way for APEC membership and TPP negotiations as it is doing it with OECD membership? Is it because United States´ Latin American partners are in the shadow in the policy shift towards Asia Pacific? Most probably yes.

Obama’s administration envisioned pathway towards achieving a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) as a major instrument to further a regional economic integration agenda that would include both sides of the Pacific Rim will not be a profound reality if the United States doesn´t early and actively involve other Latin American Pacific Rim countries like Colombia to the APEC and TPP processes.

The United States is not willing to bring Colombia now into the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) ongoing negotiations to achieve a broader based Asia-Pacific regional trade agreement, in a moment when the NAFTA-type US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement is already in force since May 2012.

The United States strongest argument seems to be that Colombia is not yet an APEC member, a non written tacit requirement that has gained consensus to join the TPP process.

Hence, it is argued by the United States that it is then very difficult to support bringing Colombia to the negotiating table in the TPP process since Colombia is a non-APEC economy. But such tacit requirement was not there before 2008 when the original signatory TPP members did not include the United States, plus APEC economies have declared this month that they have taken note that there are various regional undertakings that could be developed and built upon as a way towards an eventual FTAAP.    

Within the 11 countries that will be currently involved during 2012 in the TPP talks, Chile and Peru are making part of such negotiation together with the NAFTA countries: United States, Canada and Mexico. Chile, a founding signatory member of P4, the original grouping behind the TPP talks, invited Peru and Colombia to join P4 in 2007. Unfortunately, Colombia missed that strategic decision to move forward.

In other words, it was not the United States who brought Chile and Peru into the TPP Process. And not until this year, the United States accepted to support Canada and Mexico to formally join the talks, something that will formally begin in October. In conclusion, the United States push to bring Latin American Pacific Rim countries into the TPP process has been narrowly reduced to its NAFTA partners. Latin America is in the shadow when the United States makes a pivotal move into the Asia Pacific.

In the meantime, China, which is an APEC member and has Latin America in its foreign policy spotlight, is not only reluctant to join the TPP negotiation process as it sees it as a rules-based contention strategy directed to its jurisdiction and orchestrated by the United States, but also it is preferring to engage with Latin America in a bilateral and regional approach in which it may build more influence in a faster way.

Even in the middle of the ideological divides of many Latin American countries, China´s integration to the region is perceived by all Latin American countries as harmonic, pragmatic, peaceful and respectful of local values and ideological thinking. There is no one Latin American country voicing concern on China´s integration with the region since its integration is not openly value-driven.

It can be stated that China is seen in Latin America as a very important trading partner for all Latin American economies, and an investment, cooperation and financial partner for a growing majority.

China can talk free trade to its current and future free traders like Chile, Peru, Costa Rica or Colombia, and can talk oppositely different to ALBA countries that will not dare to talk about free trade.

This pragmatic approach gives China a position of strength in the scope and velocity of how it is rapidly engaging with Latin America vis-à-vis the United States.

In the meantime, China and Colombia are just starting to explore new ways of deepening economic cooperation, promote growth of trade and two-way investment under its Bilateral Investment Treaty in force since July 2012.

China is today Colombia´s second trading partner. China and Colombia are willing to expand cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, energy, mining, water conservation, telecommunications and agriculture. China is not pressing on good governance and democracy or human rights, topics of the United States agenda with Colombia.    

China is moving fast in strengthening contacts and enhancing mutual trust in the Colombian political area so as to secure long-term friendship. China is tapping into the potential of mutually beneficial cooperation and inviting Colombia to enter into a Free Trade Agreement to jointly achieve common development in the economic area. China´s financial institutions are ready to provide financial services for bilateral trade, economic and technological cooperation.  

So if the United States does not correct the way it is engaging countries like Colombia into its new Asia Pacific foreign policy priority, China will probably be the star that will consolidate an FTA with Colombia, will champion Colombia´s entry into APEC and will consolidate its engagement with the region via the Pacific Alliance, Mercosur and other groupings, as a way to take advantage of the shortsightedness of the United States with Latin America in its policy shift towards the Asia Pacific.